THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S IMPLICIT INFLATION TARGET AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS: AN SVAR ANALYSIS

This article identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as vector autoregression innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses indicate that a positive shock to the target is associated with a large increase in inflation and long-term interest rates in the United States. Target shocks are estimated to be a vital factor behind the increase in inflation during the pre-1980 period and are an important driver of the decline in long-term interest rates over the last two decades

News-driven business cycles in small open economies

The focus of this paper is on news-driven business cycles in small open economies. We make two significant contributions. First, we develop a small open economy model where the presence of financial frictions permits the replication of business cycle co-movements in response to news shocks. Second, we use VAR analysis to identify news shocks using data on four advanced small open economies. We find that expected shocks about the future Total Factor Productivity generate business cycle co-movements in output, hours, consumption and investment. We also find that news shocks are associated with countercyclical current account dynamics. Our findings are robust across a number of alternative identification schemes

State dependence in labor market fluctuations

This paper documents state dependence in labor market uctuations. Using a Threshold Vector Autoregression model (TVAR), we establish that the unemployment rate, the job separation rate, and the job finding rate exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. We calibrate the model to match the standard deviation of the job-transition rates explained by productivity shocks in the TVAR, and show that the model explains 88 percent of the state dependence in the unemployment rate, 76 percent for the separation rate and 36 percent for the job finding rate. The key channel underpinning state dependence in both job separation and job finding rates is the interaction of the firm's reservation productivity level and the distribution of match-specific idiosyncratic productivity. Results are robust across several variations to the baseline model

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR approach

A growing literature considers the impact of uncertainty using SVAR models that include proxies for uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper we consider the impact of measurement error in these proxies on the estimated impulse responses. We show via a Monte-Carlo experiment that measurement error can result in attenuation bias in impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument does not su¤er from this bias. Applying this latter method to the Bloom (2009) data-set results in impulse responses to uncertainty shocks that are larger in magnitude and more persistent than those obtained from a recursive SVAR

A comparative evaluation of interest point detectors and local descriptors for visual SLAM

Abstract In this paper we compare the behavior of different interest points detectors and descriptors under the conditions needed to be used as landmarks in vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). We evaluate the repeatability of the detectors, as well as the invariance and distinctiveness of the descriptors, under different perceptual conditions using sequences of images representing planar objects as well as 3D scenes. We believe that this information will be useful when selecting an appropriat

Alcian Blue Histological investigation of generated hyaline cartilage tissue from adipose mesenchymal stem cells, on Polycaprolactone scaffolds.

Purpose: Cartilage has a low regenerative capacity and research has recently focused on regenerative medicine and the construction of three-dimensional scaffolds for cartilage production. The aim of the study was to compare three types of polycaprolactone scaffolds (PCLs) and to characterize the produced cells as chondrocytes, using Alcian blue, a widespread histochemical staining. Methods: We manufactured polycaprolactone scaffolds with three different geometry patterns, named PCL1, PCL2 and PCL3. Adipose mesenchymal stem cells ADMSCs were harvested and were cultivated on all scaffolds. After 26 days of culture, scaffolds were histologically examined. Results: Chondrocytes and extracellular material in scaffolds were revealed by alcian blue staining. In all three types of scaffolds extracellular matrix high in proteoglycans was produced. Small cells were usually found in three-dimensional, tight groups. Larger cells were often identified in flat groups with more extracellular material. In PCL2 scaffolds, cells were usually more rounded and often appeared to be inside lacunae. Perichondrium was detected. Conclusion: Chondrogenesis was achieved in all three types of scaffolds. In all cases we identified cells at various stages of maturation. In the PCL2 scaffold, cells appeared more mature, suggesting that this type of scaffold may be a little more favorable for chondrogenesis

News shocks and labor market dynamics in matching models

We enrich a baseline RBC model with search and matching frictions on the labor market and real frictions that are helpful in accounting for the response of macroeconomic aggregates to shocks. The analysis allows shocks to have an unanticipated and a news (i.e. anticipated) component. The Bayesian estimation of the model reveals that the model which includes news shocks on macroeconomic aggregates produces a remarkable fit of the data. News shocks in stationary and non-stationary TFP, investment-specific productivity and preference shocks significantly affect labor market variables and explain a sizeable fraction of macroeconomic uctuations at medium- and long-run horizons. Historically, news shocks have played a relevant role for output, but they have had a limited in uence on unemployment